The impact of population heterogeneity on the age trajectory of neonatal mortality: a study of US births 2008-2014

I contribute an empirical test of the hypothesis that the age trajectory of mortality in the days and weeks following birth is an artifact of mortality selection.

PFS: Probabilistic Fertility Scenarios

PFS allows for probabilistic forecasts of age specific fertility rates around a pre-specified scenario.

What are the recently cancelled NIH research grants about?

Topical cluster map of terms used in recently cancelled NIH grants. No surprises there I guess.

Trump-Politik: Folgen für die Forschung in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf verlorene Lebensjahre in Europa

Layers of reproducibility

Guidance along a path towards full reproducibility.

Zahl der Totgeburten in Deutschland gestiegen

Stillbirth rate trends across 25 European countries between 2010 and 2021: the contribution of maternal age and multiplicity

Stillbirth rates have stalled or increased in some European countries during the last decade. Why?

Empirical prediction intervals applied to short term mortality forecasts and excess deaths

We propose the use of empirical prediction intervals for the study of weekly expected and excess deaths and show the superior calibration of these intervals compared to parametric intervals. Further, we use the empirical PIs to quantify the probability of detecting 10% excess deaths in a given week, given pre-pandemic mortality trends.

Visualization as a design process

Teaching of data visualization as a design process.

Population age structure dependency of the excess mortality P-score

We present formal and empirical results on the population structure bias of the P-score with a special focus on cross-country comparisons during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.

Lebenserwartung in Deutschland sinkt weiter

tricolore. A flexible color scale for ternary compositions

tricolore is an R library providing a flexible color scale for the visualization of three-part (ternary) compositions.

Implementing open science

Get familiar with the tools of the open science trade.

Die Toten der Pandemie

ungroup: Penalized Composite Link Model for Efficient Estimation of Smooth Distributions from Coarsely Binned Data

Versatile method for ungrouping histograms (binned count data). Used by the UN Population Division.

Predictive Modeling

Demonstration of the predictive modeling workflow.

Was passierte im Juni 2021?

Rising Stillbirth Rates in Germany. An Analysis of Changes in the Age and Nationality Structure of Women Giving Birth Between 2009 and 2018

During the last decade, a continuous increase in the rate of stillbirths has been observed in Germany. So far, the reasons for this trend are not well understood…

Studie zur Übersterblichkeit sorgt für Wirbel

Wunschliste für die nächste Pandemie

Bevölkerungsalterung unter Pandemiebedingungen

Wie hoch ist ein eventuelles Bevölkerungsdefizit unter Rentner:innen durch deren unerwartet frühes Ableben während der Pandemie und ändert sich unter pandemischen Bedingungen grundsätzlich etwas an den Herausforderungen des Rentensystems? Wir schauen auf die demografische Ausgangslage.

Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates

We believe that the estimates of the COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators are unreliable and should not be used for any policy evaluation.

How the U.S. Lost Years of Life

Blue Zones - Hundert Jahre alt und gesund

Predictive Modeling

Demonstration of the predictive modeling workflow.

Lebenserwartung in der Pandemie deutlich zurückgegangen

Life expectancy changes since COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020, attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks.

Life expectancy declines in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020

How did Russia fare during the first year of the pandemic?

The path to open science

Guidance along a path towards full reproducibility.

Survival Analysis

Inference about the timing of events.

Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe.

Robustness and bias of European excess death estimates in 2020 under varying model specifications

Using weekly death counts from 20 European countries, we evaluate the robustness of excess death estimates to the choice of model for expected deaths and perform a cross-validation analysis to assess the error and bias in each model’s predicted death counts.

The centered ternary balance scheme: A technique to visualize surfaces of unbalanced three-part compositions

By reprojecting an unbalanced compositional data set around its center of location and visualizing the transformed data with a standard ternary balance scheme, the internal variation of the data becomes visible. An appropriate centering operation has been defined within the field of compositional data analysis.

Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis

We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England & Wales 2020.

Patient self-testing of white blood cell count and differentiation: A study of feasibility and measurement performance in a population of Danish cancer patients

This study sought to evaluate measurement properties and feasibility of patients’ self-testing using a point-of-care testing (POCT) device.

But Why? Design choices made while creating 'Regional population structures at a glance'

Post-publication design self critique of a map that went viral.

But Why? Design choices made while creating "Regional population structures at a glance"

In this essay we want to explain the design choices we made during the creation of the map, explore and discuss alternative designs and evaluate our visualization against the goals we had when starting this project.

Wien, größte Stadt des Burgenlandes: Über "Zuagraste" in der Hauptstadt

An R package for efficient estimation of smooth distributions from coarsely binned data

ungroup is an R library that introduces a versatile method for ungrouping histograms.

Creating equal-area grids

I made a rookie mistake: I’ve accidentally created a grid where the grid cells have different areas, thereby compromising the bubble grid map which is supposed to show counts over equal areas. Here’s a demonstration of the wrong and the correct approach…

Map reveals how rural areas across Western Europe have lost their young people

Tidy R

The tidyverse approach to R and demographic analysis.

Bubble-grid versus choropleth maps

Bertin’s work continues to inspire me to try out alternative visual mappings. The bubble-grid idea is such an experiment in perception.

Bubble-grid-maps

I want to show the population density across Europe in a stylized fashion using a regular grid of bubbles sized according to population counts.

Visualizing data

Visualization will be taught as a design process.

A unified framework of demographic time

Period, birth cohort, age, lifespan, time until death, death cohort unified in one expanded Lexis identity.

The Unknown Pleasures of Demography

And who’s to say the human age-distribution of death isn’t as interesting as cosmic pulsars? Let me show you the unknown pleasures of demography.

Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface

We introduce techniques for visualizing compositional data on a period-age grid to the field of demography and demonstrate the usefulness of the techniques by performing an exploratory analysis of age-specific French cause-of-death patterns across the 20th century.”

Biostatistics II

Regression models for biostatistics.

My Reply to flowingdata's Causes of Death Chart

Complementing flowingdata’s causes of death chart I visualize US deaths by cause. I focus on raw counts and the age distribution of deaths.

How I Started Learning Data Visualization

To learn the craft of data visualization one has to know where to start. The following list is comprised of items which helped me in gaining some skills

The Age Pattern of Human Fetal- and Infant Mortality

Using US microdata on fetal- and infant mortality I constructed a cohort of individuals who where conceived in the year 2009.

The Human Mortality Explorer

Visualizing the risk of dying across age and time around the globe. Compare countries with each other and dig into the gender gap of mortality risk. Build with R + shiny and not possible without the Human Mortality Database.

Greatest Beer Selection

Tiny Twin Workstation

10 PRINT in R

Currently I’m reading 10 PRINT, “a book about a one-line Commodore 64 BASIC program.” I covered the program using R.

Aiming High

I’m not a doctor yet but it’s nice (if unintended) that my talk at this years PAA conference lead to people thinking otherwise.

From Population Pyramids to Ternary Plots: Visualizing Data for Demography

San Diego. Panoramic II

The experience of seeing the Pacific for the first time was making me forget my burns and dry throat.

San Diego. Panoramic I

This city is scenic. I went to Balboa Park. It is a huge green square filled with Spanish, colonial architecture, huge trees and flowers of all varieties. Admission is, yet again, completely free which seems just incredibly generous given that this is one of the most beautiful and well-preserved parks I’ve ever been to.

Stochasticity versus Determination

Last week I had an argument about the statistical interpretation of chance and pre-determination. Are they an attribute of the processes/phenomena we model or are they a product of the way we model a process? I believe the latter.

San Diego. First Impressions

The first thing I noticed about San Diego was its nice temperature and climate, even at night. The second impression I received during my cab ride from the airport to the hotel along the Pacific Highway: “This looks like GTA: Vice City”

Ankunft in Warschau

Pałac Kultury i Nauki

Zwischenraum Jam

Ein Jazz Jam in seiner vollen 13 minütigen Pracht. Entstanden zwischen Weihnachten und Neujahr bei mir im Zwischenraum. Simon am Piano und ich an der Gitarre.

Anatomie einer Sammelkarte

Sammelkarten sind fester Bestandteil der Fußballfolklore. Mit Rahmen und Logo in Szene gesetzt, werden die abgebildeten Personen in einen Sport-Kosmos integriert, der über das eigentliche Spiel hinaus geht.

Verbergen

“(…) oder haben sie etwas zu verbergen?”

In der jüngsten Zeit haben solche Worte wieder an Prominenz gewonnen. Die dahinter stehende Argumentation “Wer nichts zu befürchten hat, der hat auch nichts zu verbergen” (vice versa) wird immer dann von oben herab gepredigt, wenn es um die Aufgabe von Privatheit gegenüber dem Staat und seinen Organen geht.

Tutorial Fußballfotografie

Seit einem Jahr fotografiere ich die Heimspiele der Frauen vom RFC Rostock. In dieser Zeit habe ich ein paar Erfahrungen gesammelt, die ich hier festhalten möchte. Keine Profitipps, sondern lediglich die ersten Schritte, die ich im Bereich der Fußballfotografie gemacht habe.

Fixing Commander Keen on Steam

Commander Keen. Great game, but with performance issues since I transitioned from Windows 7 to 8: Sluggish motion, stuttering sound… Let’s fix that.

Blame

Mein Freund Hannes hat mich neulich gefragt, ob ich nicht eine Tanzimprovisation von ihm vertonen möchte… Ja.

Nietzscheente. Nag, nag

Lomoh 1

Evil Fork

ICD 10 F64. Wer ist hier krank? (Update)

In Berlin will das Jugendamt nach wie vor ein Elfjähriges transexuelles Mädchen gegen den eigenen Willen und den der Mutter zwangsweise in die Psychiatrie einweisen – mit anschließendem Aufenthalt in einer Pflegefamilie.

ICD 10 F64. Wer ist hier krank?

Es ist falsch, Transsexuellen eine geschlechtsangleichende Maßnahme zu verwehren, weil sie sich eines Identitätsmerkmals bedienen (dem Geschlecht), welches man als soziale Unterscheidung ablehnt. An dem von der TAZ geschilderten Fall ist deutlich zu sehen, dass Transsexualität keine Frage von geschlechtlichen Rollenstereotypen oder Rollenmustern ist (vor der Wahl stehend mit Puppen oder Autos zu spielen entscheidet sich das Mädchen genervt für ein herumliegendes Puzzle), sondern viel rudimentärer auf einem vorgesellschaftliches Geschlechtsempfinden beruht, welches nicht mit dem biologischen Geschlecht konform geht.

Essaysammlung 2009 bis 2011

Hier ein paar Essays, die sich über die Zeit des Studiums der Sozialwissenschaften angesammelt haben.

• Der Fremde in der Großstadt?
• Deutschland: Global Player ohne Global Cities?
• Sozialkapital bei der Betrachtung von Arbeitslosigkeit
• Über die Vorhersagbarkeit sozialen Handelns
• Der Geburtenrückgang in westlichen Industrieländern: Zwei Erklärungsmodelle im Vergleich
• Das Internet im Kontext der Differenzierung und Individualisierung des Lebenslaufes am Beispiel von Online-Partnerbörsen und Telecommuting
• Die Abschwächung des Effektes der Bildungsexpansion auf den Auszug aus dem Elternhaus

Objektivität und Recht

Ein sich als Hardliner profilierender Gov’nor, eine emotional – weil selbst betroffen – ermittelnde Polizei, ein Hauptzeuge welcher erst einmal motiviert war, seinen eigenen Arsch zu retten und keine Spur dieser wundervoll eindeutigen forensischen Beweisführung, welche das Fernsehen regelmäßig als Beweisfindungsalltag darstellt – der Fall Troy Davies.

Man ist ja immer so wichtig heutzutage

Was haben Eisbären und Flaschensammler gemeinsam? Genau! Sie verfassen keine soziologischen Theorien und sind daher nicht wichtig.

Strahlung in Tokio

During the Fukushima nuclear disaster I collected the data from various Geiger-counter-live-streams in Japan and displayed these informations with the help of the statistical software R.